The honest answer is: it depends on how much you spend, not on a headline number. A retiree spending $40,000 a year needs a very different portfolio than one spending $90,000 — and in Canada, CPP and OAS do a lot of the heavy lifting.
Start with spending, not savings
Your retirement number is driven by your annual after-tax spending. Track what you actually spend now, then adjust for retirement: the mortgage may be gone, commuting and work costs disappear, but travel and healthcare often rise.
Subtract guaranteed income
This is where Canada is different from the U.S. examples you'll read online. CPP and OAS are guaranteed, inflation-indexed income for life. How much you get depends heavily on your CPP contribution history. A couple who both land near the maximum CPP plus full OAS could see roughly $45,000–$52,000 a year between them — but that's the ceiling, not the norm. Most people don't reach the maximum: the average new CPP pension is a little over $800 a month, so a more typical couple is closer to $30,000–$37,000. Either way, it's income your portfolio doesn't have to provide — just be careful not to overestimate it. (Here's what actually drives your CPP amount.)
So the real question is: how big is the gap between your spending and your government benefits? Your portfolio only has to fill that gap.
Apply a safe withdrawal rate
Once you know the annual gap, divide by a safe withdrawal rate to get the portfolio you need:
- 4% rule: gap × 25
- More conservative (3.5%): gap × ~29
If your spending is $60,000, benefits cover $35,000, and the $25,000 gap is filled at 4%, you need roughly $625,000 — not the scary million-dollar figures you often see.
Don't forget tax
RRSP and RRIF withdrawals are taxable; TFSA withdrawals aren't. Two people with the same portfolio can have very different after-tax incomes depending on where their money sits and which province they live in. That's exactly what a full simulation is for.
The fastest way to find your own number is to model it — enter your spending, savings and benefits, and see the plan year by year.